San Ramon Earthquake Forecast
Last Event: 2026-02-14 04:42:56 PST |
Generated: 2026-02-14 18:46:55 PST |
Elapsed: 14.07h
Swarm Risk (Next 24 Hours): LOW (18.0%)
Seismic activity frequency is within normal limits. (Probability of >5 events)
Short-Term Probabilities
| Threshold | 4h | 8h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mag ≥ 2 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 11.0% | 16.0% |
| Mag ≥ 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mag ≥ 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mag ≥ 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Long-Term Probabilities
| Threshold | 4 Days | 7 Days | 14 Days | 30 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mag ≥ 2 | 37.0% | 51.0% | 76.0% | 86.0% |
| Mag ≥ 3 | 1.0% | 3.0% | 15.0% | 18.0% |
| Mag ≥ 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mag ≥ 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Visualizations
Reference Maps & History
Model Validation Report
Methodology: Models trained on first 80% of history, tested on last 20%.
Test Period: 2017-09-14 to 2026-02-14
1. Swarm Classification Performance
| Metric | Score |
|---|---|
| Accuracy | 87.2% |
| F1-Score (Swarm Class) | 0.77 |
2. Time-to-Event Regression Error (MAE)
MAE measures the average error in hours. Lower is better.
Note: "Swarm MAE" is naturally lower because events happen frequently (minutes apart).
| Target | Global MAE | Swarm Only MAE | Quiet MAE | Swarm Count / Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mag ≥ 2 | 128.4 h | 58.7h | 169.4h | 698 / 1887 |
| Mag ≥ 3 | 157.4 h | 127.0h | 196.1h | 491 / 877 |
| Mag ≥ 4 | 158.2 h | 109.8h | 214.1h | 74 / 138 |
